It’s June, which means the Dallas Mavericks have officially entered the most important 6-week stretch for the franchise since the Summer of 2018. Nico Harrison & co. will embark on a mission to “overhaul” a roster that ended up not being qualified for entrance to the 2023 postseason. Every Mavericks fan & follower has their own idea of how Harrison should handle this Summer, including myself. You’re about to experience the “overhaul” that I see necessary to catapult Dallas into a playoff-caliber team in the 2023-2024 Western Conference.
The Philosophy
There are various ways to go about addressing the roster construction necessary to improve Dallas’ situation. The way I have decided to endeavor upon this task is by combining my opinion on what Dallas should do with what I believe is most likely to happen from the standpoint for their front office. My ideals for roster construction don’t exactly align with the historical outlook of Mark Cuban-led regimes, so I wanted to blend the two together to produce what I believe will be a realistic case-scenario for this offseason. We’ll take a look at how I view Dallas should approach each area of this offseason: The Draft, Trade Market, Free Agency.
The Draft
What the Dallas Mavericks decide to do in & around the 2023 NBA Draft is the leading topic of conversation on Mavs Twitter ever since we learned they would keep their pick this year and select #10 overall. I’ll start off with explaining what they CANNOT do before I decide what they should do. The absolute worst case-scenario, and most unlikely, is they attach it to Davis Bertans’ contract in a true salary dump situation in a trade to a team like San Antonio with no true assets in return. Take it a step further and Dallas also should not attach Bertans to the pick and get another bad contract or declining veteran in return. Either of those two options would be DRAMATIC setbacks to an already adverse situation that Dallas is in. There are three other routes that are suitable and that I view equally as plausible: 1.) Stay at #10. 2.) Trade back & acquire a role player or other assets in the process. 3.) Trade out of the draft entirely and acquire a true #3 for your roster. I would be fine with Dallas taking any of these approaches, as long as they get requisite value in return. Trading back just to trade back would be unwise. Trading the pick for a reclamation project would be too risky. Staying and reaching for someone at #10 is not the end of the world but also would be a major letdown. I am team Get The Best Value possible out of the asset that is the #10 pick. Assessing the Mavericks’ draft assets, present & future, as well as their young players under contract contain a combination of The Draft and the Trade Market portions of this analysis. Let’s take a look at how those blend together.
Trade Market
Continuing what I have voiced on my outlook of protecting the value of the Mavericks’ most valuable draft asset, I also want to stress the importance of protecting the value of future draft assets and young core players. Dallas has four indeniably valuable assets at their utilige outside of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Those four are the aforementioned #10 pick of this draft, their 2027 1st round draft pick, Josh Green & Jaden Hardy. In my eyes, you cannot part ways with more than one of these four without guaranteeing that you are trading for a player that none of these assets could ever blossom into. Combining two or more of the four could net you a #3 for your team, but at the cost of your young depth and future draft potential. Trading away more than one of these four in separate trades would almost feel like shuffling around the roster for marginal improvement. All this being said, I am 1,000,000% on the side of treating Josh Green and Jaden Hardy as untouchable in trade conversations unless an unlikely scenario arises where Dallas could trade for a player the likes of Pascal Siakam or an equivalent. Why would you trade Josh Green &/or Jaden Hardy combined with all your draft compensation for OG Anunoby, whenever it is feasible to see Green grow to the level of Anunoby within the next two seasons? Swinging for the fences with a majority of your assets for someone who will never sniff becoming a true #2 on a title contender is a move that will place you right back into your current situation within 2-3 seasons more likely than not. The goal for this off-season is to make efficient, progressive team-building moves that make you more competitive while increasing your likelihood for exponential growth in the years beyond this one. The Draft and Trade Market are so linked together because of the high likelihood of Dallas trading the #10 overall pick. Outside of trading away draft picks or young core players, Tim Hardaway Jr. is the most likely Maverick to be traded. I find it hard to imagine that he is traded alone, with a draft pick likely being paired with him for a bigger upgrade. If he were to be traded alone in a 1for1 or 1for2 type of situation, I would fear that it would be another example of just reshuffling the same deck of cards. The Mavericks should avoid moves like these during the off-season. I want to see Dallas be aggressive in the trade market around the margins, in addition to their pursuits of trading draft capital for proven player(s). Trade Reggie Bullock for a couple of 2nd rounders. Combine Maxi Kleber & JaVale McGee for a consolidation of 1 big man. Make a move or two around the fringes that is a net positive for your future cap situation and asset situation.
Free Agency
Mentioning the Dallas Mavericks and Free Agency in the same sentence is pure jump scare material. Whether it’s missing out on stars like Deron Williams or Dwight Howard, or inexplicably sacrificing multiple years of team-building efforts in attempts to create cap space for a miracle run at Giannis Antetokounmpo, they have a devastating history of failing in the free agency market. This year they find themselves as an “above-the-tax” team with the only moves available are minimum contracts, re-signing their own free agents, or clearing enough space underneath the hard cap to gain access to the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE), which would pay a free agent at an estimated beginning salary of $12.2 million in 2023-2024. Most of everything in free agency, along with the entire offseason, hinges on whether or not they re-sign Kyrie Irving. If they do, then their potential moves are relatively simple in terms of avenues to go down. I have always operated underneath the mindset that Kyrie will remain a member of the Dallas Mavericks long-term. That isn’t going to change in my mind. They are likely to re-sign players like Dwight Powell and Theo Pinson, and would be wise to retain young former two-way players McKinley Wright IV and A.J. Lawson as well. Christian Wood is very unlikely to re-sign with Dallas, but players like Justin Holliday, Markieff Morris and Frank Ntilikina could be players to be re-signed at the veteran minimum contract after everything else plays out. If they are able to move off of Davis Bertans’ contract without major salary in return, along with another small move here or there to create more cap flexibility, it is very feasible for them to gain access to the aforementioned full NTMLE. What they would decide to do with this would be directly correlated to their move(s), or lack thereof, in the draft & trade market. If they were to draft or trade for a big man, then it’s most likely they would use the NTMLE on a wing, and vice versa. The quickest route to contention, in my opinion, would be to pair the 10th pick with a player to acquire a big man, and then use the NTMLE on a wing (more on this later.) Either way, the Dallas Mavericks do have options, albeit limited options, to improve their roster in free agency. Let’s finally take a look at my best prediction on what will happen this offseason for Dallas.
The Moves
Re-Sign Kyrie Irving
I predict Dallas will re-sign Kyrie to the fully guaranteed max contract for 3 years plus a player option 4th year. Kyrie most likely wants 5 years, and Dallas most likely wants 3. I see them meeting in the middle.
Draft Day Trade
3-Way Trade between the Dallas Mavericks, Cleveland Cavaliers, San Antonio Spurs
Dallas receives:
Jarrett Allen
Cedi Osman
Cleveland receives:
#10 overall Pick 2023 Draft (via Dallas)
Tim Hardaway Jr.
JaVale McGee
San Antonio receives:
Davis Bertans
#49 overall Pick 2023 Draft (via Golden State FROM Cleveland)
This move would be a homerun for the Mavericks. At the cost of the #10 overall pick this year, Tim Hardaway Jr. and their two worst contracts on their books, they are able to acquire their best big man since Tyson Chandler and a solid backup wing in Osman. This is a no-brainer for me from Dallas’ perspective. San Antonio will need to meet the salary floor this off-season, and Bertans has played with head coach Gregg Popovich in the past, so there is no doubt that he would get the best out of Bertans moreso than any other coach in the NBA. They get a 2nd round pick for their troubles as they enter their new Victor Wembanyama era while they still face at least a season or two ahead of a rebuild. Cleveland is needing to fill their starting wing spot with a proven veteran or promising young prospect and this trade would offer them both options. Hardaway could begin the season as a spot starter and whichever wing the Cavaliers selected at #10 could make his way into that starting role as time went on. JaVale McGee would be salary filler, but also a veteran back-up big man that would be a good locker room presence in Cleveland. I played around with over a dozen different ideas of combining Hardaway Jr. with the #10 overall pick for a proven big man in return, and this turned out to be the best, most realistic option.
Mid-Level Exception
Sign Jalen McDaniels to the full 4-year Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (projected 4 years, $52,550,300 — $12,221,000 in Year 1 per @CBAMavs on Twitter)
I think there would be natural interest on Dallas’ end to complete this type of deal with McDaniels, who would offer the Mavericks exactly what they would need in a 2-way big wing player who would play off of Doncic & Irving perfectly. There may be an issue on whether or not the Philadelphia 76ers would offer the same level of contract to McDaniels or possibly more if Daryl Morey is willing to go WAY into the luxury tax. What happens in Philly this offseason hinges on the decision of James Harden opting out of his final year of his contract and whether or not he re-signs with the 76ers or walks in free agency. If Harden were to somehow walk away with no compensation in return for Philly, they might be willing to fork over whatever it takes to retain McDaniels as a key rotation piece around Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. I think the least likely option for the Harden/Philly future is the one I just mentioned, and that McDaniels’ offer from the Mavericks would be too much of a luxury tax burden to take on. There’s always the possibility of Dallas & Philly completing a sign-and-trade to bring McDaniels to Dallas, but I see that as unlikely as well. My prediction stands firm: McDaniels to Dallas for the NTMLE.
The Minimums
Veteran Minimum Contracts
Dwight Powell (1 year)
Justin Holiday (1 year)
Theo Pinson (1 year)
McKinley Wright IV (2 years)
*2-Way Deal to A.J. Lawson OR 1 year minimum
We all know that Dwight Powell and Theo Pinson will be back on the Mavericks roster in 2023-2024. They would be wise to keep all of these, aside from Wright, as 1 year deals. I see Wright being able to develop into an adequate bench point guard who can give you 10-15 minutes on any given night, if needed. Holiday would be a decent end of the bench veteran wing option, and A.J. Lawson needs more time to develop but he is the exact type of player that Dallas should keep around for the future.
The Rotation
Luka Doncic
Kyrie Irving
Josh Green
Jalen McDaniels
Jarrett Allen
Bench
Jaden Hardy
Reggie Bullock
Cedi Osman
Maxi Kleber
Dwight Powell
End of Bench
McKinley Wright IV
Justin Holiday
Theo Pinson
A.J. Lawson (potentially)
The End
There you have it. I have fixed the Dallas Mavericks. You are very welcome, Nico Harrison, for me making your job much easier this offseason. I’m only kidding (partly.) All jokes aside, this conglomerate of roster moves seems like the most ideal & realistic outcome for the Dallas Mavericks’ offseason. You get your big man & your starting big wing. You add another wing to your bench and retain some veteran & young depth as well. This is a combination of flashy and grounded. I flounded this thing for the Mavericks all the way to top-tier western-conference playoff contention. You’re Welcome, MFFLs.
