Predicting the Deadline


It is that time of year, where we finished with Christmas cheer and the New Year has given much hope and renewal of confidence as new goals present themselves to us. This isn’t unlike the NBA. There are some teams that have a renewal of hope. However, maybe they’re a contender that is getting a piece back that is healthy,they have a clear vision that they need help that isn't coming or that they need to give coveted pieces away to those in need. It is NBAs most fun time of year. 

In the Mavs case, there are specific targets that have been recently identified by NBA Analyst James Weinbech on the Mavs post-Christmas, pre-Valentines day wish list. Here are their names, numbers, addresses and in most cases there are no trade backs. 

Jerami Grant- Portland Trailblazers 

Age: 29 6’8” 210lbs



Contract

2023/24

$27,586,207

2024/25

$29,793,104

2025/26

$32,000,001

2026/27

$34,206,898

2027/28

$36,413,790



Current Averages

21.7ppg/3.6rpg/2.4apg/.8spg/.7blg 

48.7% from 2 (11.1/g)

40.3% from 3 (5.4/g)

80.3% from FT (5.4/g)

52.5% efg


Jerami Grant represents a player that on paper has everything you want. He has size, versatility. He can shoot the 3, put it on the floor.and in theory, he can play a little bit of defense. Jerami’s defensive chops are more from his reputation when he was playing with Denver. Over the last several years with Detroit and Portland, he has let things on that side of the ball lapse, choosing to instead focus on his offensive skill set. He represents an upgrade to the starting lineup that desperately needs more consistent scoring help for Luka and Kyrie. If he put in the same energy on defense when he was with Denver this would be a great move for the Mavericks. Although, in a recent interview he indicated he would not welcome a change and is happy in Portland. 


Kyle Kuzma- Washington Wizards

Age: 28, 6’9” 220lbs


Contract

2023/24

$25,568,182

2024/25

$23,522,727

2025/26

$21,477,272

2026/27

$19,431,819


Current Averages

21.8ppg/6.4rpg/4.3apg/.5spg/.6bpg

51.7% from 2 (12/g)

34.3% from 3 (6.7/g)

78.7% from FT (3.2/g)

51.6% eFG


Kuzma is a polarizing figure. He is routinely on twitter making controversial statement. Such as, the Mavs don't play winning basketball. He has feuded with former WCF Mav guard, Spencer Dinwiddie. On the court he does a little of everything and some of it not well. Defensively, he is not good. He is not really good off the ball and does not create a lot of turnovers or deflections where he is in the 2nd percentile. OOF. However, as a tertiary playmaker he is really good, he is in the 90th percentile and has a passer rating in the 66th percentile. He is a scorer, albeit not the most efficient scorer. In a tertiary score role perhaps he would become more efficient. It is something that the Maverick will have to weigh. There is upside, he is a good rebounder for his position and has good size.  


Daniel Gafford- Washington Wizards 

Age: 25, 6’10” 235lb


Contract

2023/24

$12,402,000

2024/25

$13,394,160

2025/26

$14,386,320


Current Averages

10.5ppg/7.6rpg/1.6apg/.9spg/2.1bpg

68.5% from 2 (6.3/g)

0.0% from 3 (None Taken)

72.7% from FT (2.4/g)

68.5% eFG



The other Wizard, Gafford AKA “The Landlord” is a long defender that has good instincts to defend the rim. His over 2bpg would be a nice change for when Lively is off the court. He's not tall but has a good wingspan and athleticism. He is great on the boards . His role offensively would a roll man. His current PNR partners are not always the greatest, however he make the most of the opportunities when he gets them. He is in the 98% as a roll man, which would factor in well with Luka. He plays well in space and has the determination to be one of the best big man defenders in the league. A Lively/Gafford duo would provide the Mavs with a dynamic big man duo they have lacked since the 2011 season. 



PJ Washington- Charlotte Hornets

Age 25 6’7” 230lbs

Contract

2023/24

$16,847,826

2024/25

$15,500,000

2025/26

$14,152,174


Current Averages

12.7ppg/5.2rpg/2.1apg/.9spg/.7bpg

52.8% from 2 (5.7/g)

31.7% from 3 (5.5/g)

75.8% from FT (1.9/g)

50.3 eFG


PJ Washington is coming off his best year and was rewarded with a 3yr and $46M contract in his RFA. He wasnt really pursued by many teams so his FA was more like a hostage negotiation than him really wanting to return to the Hornets. I am sure he was grateful, but i think his heart is elsewhere. You can see that in his play this year. He has not been nearly as good. He is down in just about every statistical category. If he resorts to last years player it would create another dynaminc in the Mavs offense and defense. He is not known as a 3 point shooter but he does shoot for his career 36% on 5/g with a career high of 38.6%. He was used as a floor spacer at the 5 position and his 7’2” wingspan allows him to guard 5 positions. This is definitely a buy low candidate that could be very fruitful in Dallas. 



Isaiah Stewart- Detroit Pistons

Age 22, 6’8” 250


Contract

2023/24

$5,266,713

2024/25

$15,000,000

2025/26

$15,000,000

2026/27

$15,000,000

2027/28

$15,000,000



Current Averages

10.8ppg/6.9rpg/1.8apg/.3spg/.7bpg

53.0% from 2 (4.9/g)

38.5% from 3 (3.8/g)

73.6% from FT (1.7/g)

55.0% eFG



Isaiah Stewart, the man known for going crazy to get to Lebron. Stewart is a young and improving player but it is hard to get a read on him as a player or even any Pistion player at the moment. He plays hard on a nightly basis and is very strong big body. His offensive skill set is mostly dunks and 3 point shooting. He does have decent touch from about 16ft but he doesn't shoot from mid range very often. Defensively he competes hard and is solid defensively. He isnt an anchor of a defense but will try hard. He is a good defensive rebounder but offensively he is not around the rim player so he doesnt crash the offenseive glass. His contract may make him a prohibitive option, however he is young and sometimes you pay for the opportunity to see a player grow. 



Chris Boucher

Age 31, 6’9” 200lbs

Contract

2023/24

$11,750,000

2024/25

$10,810,000


Current Averages

6.2ppg/4.0rpg/.4apg/.3spg/.5bpg

58.6% from 2 (2.5/g)

32.9% from 3 (2.0/g)

74.3% from FT (1.8/g)

54.5% eFG% 

Chris Boucher would undoubtedly cost the least to get. He doesn't seem to fit the new Raptors timeline. I do not see him as a huge upgrade over what the Mavs have in place already, but he could help the big man depth. As a player that is not a high minute player but when he is on the court he can be seen as a decent defender and is normally efficient offensively. He will shoot the occasional 3, but he is not great at it. His contract would be a good offseason expirer to use in trade. 


Other names that have been floated around for the Mavs are: 

Deni Adjvia, Quentin Grimes, Buddy Heild, Wendell Carter Jr, Bruce Brown



Further Along Than You May Think

On Thursday night, the Dallas Mavericks played the 1st seed in the West Minnesota Timberwolves, while missing Kyrie Irving, Josh Green, Seth Curry & Maxi Kleber. The game was competitive until around the 8-minute mark, where then the Timberwolves would break away and turn the game into a blowout. Not many blowout losses leave a fan base with positive vibes and a clear direction of a team, but this was different. Let’s talk about 3 reasons why Dallas is closer to contention than anyone in Mavs Land may have believed entering this season.

The Stars

The Dallas Mavericks’ beginning, middle & end of being a contender starts with Luka Doncic & Kyrie Irving. Much was made of the star duos handful of games played together last season and the negative outcomes in the clutch. The question was asked over & over again by countless observers and outlets: “Can Luka Doncic & Kyrie Irving co-exist on a contending team?” The answer was yes, is yes & will continue to be YES. 

  • Can they perform in the clutch together? The Mavericks are 9-2 this season in clutch games. Question has been answered.

  • Can Luka learn to play off-ball, so Kyrie isn’t only a spot-up offensive player? Luka is 40.4% on spot-up 3-point shots through 23 games on 47 attempts (roughly 2 attempts per game.) Luka was 35.2% last season on just 71 attempts in 66 games (roughly 1 attempt per game.) Question has been answered.

  • Can the 2-man Luka/Kyrie lineups produce positive results? In 344 minutes played, Dallas has a 119.6 offensive rating & 113.5 defensive rating with both Luka & Kyrie on the floor. The offense would be the 3rd best offense in the NBA and the defense would be 14th in the NBA. Net rating of 6.1 would be 5th in the NBA. Question has been answered.

The key question for the Luka/Kyrie duo has never been about if they could co-exist. It has always been about could the organization surround the 2 stars with the proper talent to be able to contend. So far, the front-office has done a great job of surrounding them with complementary talent. However, the job is not done. BUT, they are closer to being “done” than some may think. More on this later.

 

The Newcomers

The work that Nico Harrison has done as the GM of the Dallas Mavericks has been wonderful so far. The retooling he has done through the past 2 ½ years as the head of the Mavs’ front office was needed and his vision gets clearer and clearer each day. Along with Kyrie Irving & Markieff Morris (I still consider them newcomers to this team since they were in Dallas very briefly last season), the draft night moves to draft Dereck Lively II, OMax Prosper & to acquire Richaun Holmes have paid off MAJORLY. Lively’s development as the center the Mavs have needed for the past 6 years is already a success and he seems like a surefire all-Rookie team member. OMax is rough around the edges, but you can already see with a couple development years that Dallas will have a versatile defensive wing-presence from OMax. Holmes has been fine in his time in Dallas, but also a major upgrade from other backup big men of the past. Then you have the signings of Dante Exum, Derrick Jones Jr & Grant Williams. All have been upgrades over the supporting cast members of last years’ team, and all are YOUNGER. Outside of the on-court positive play from each of the newcomers in Dallas, I believe the biggest factor in Dallas is that the youth injection into this team is the exact thing Dallas needed to be a more competitive regular season squad. 82 game seasons are tough. Injuries happen, off nights happen, wear & tear on aging NBA bodies happen. A remedy to this is having 6 of your top 10 players in minutes played being 26 years old & younger. Compare this to last season, where 8 of the top 10 in minutes played were 27 years old & OLDER. A vital difference in the makeup of this roster. The newcomers are good, the newcomers are (mostly) young, and they are so very vital to fulfilling the vision that Nico Harrison has instilled into this team’s plans.

  

The Vibes

There are many reason the Vibes in Dallas are great this season. Luka is in shape. Luka has bought into the team’s new direction. Kyrie is a leader on & off the court for the young guys. The newcomers have brought energy, as well as the rookies bringing vibrance. Jason Kidd has even been clamoring for some “Positive Sh*t” to be written about this team. Well, here is something positive for everyone…

The Dallas Mavericks’ vibes are indicative of a team that is one, MAYBE two, and I stress maybe, moves away from being a clear-cut contender. The vibes amongst the team seem great, and the vibes they are provoking of the fanbase are the best since Game 7 of the Western Conference Semi-Finals in 2022 in Phoenix. Why are these vibes so important? Again, it cannot be stressed enough that an 82-game regular season is a GRIND. A grind that a certain level & type of vibes can help win you a few extra games here and there.

Early November game @ Orlando on the 2nd night of a B2B, overcoming a double-digit 2nd half deficit to then win by 15? Vibes win.

Earlier this week at home versus the Lakers, while missing 4 of your top 10 best players? Vibes win.

The power of vibes is something that can make you like the Detroit Pistons who have lost 23 straight games. Or they can make you like the current Dallas Mavericks, battling through injuries and tough travel schedules to a 16-9 record. Talent can only take you so far. Vibes are something that can turn a play-in team into a possible top 4 seed.

 

Dallas has vibes. They have talent. They just need one more piece to combine the two into an Immaculate feeling that hasn’t been felt in the DFW area for this team since Jalen Brunson departed.

Got to Keep it Level-Headed

It’s hard to take things one step at a time when you’re as excited as Mavs Fans are to see Luka Doncic back on the hardwood, especially when the good guys keep winning. Even with a hot start there are some flaws in Dallas’ game that should help keep your feet on the ground while the Mavs head into the in-season tournament Friday night.

Mavs defense is still not great, especially in the first quarters. The team has enough defensive minded players to think that eventually they will find their groove on that end of the floor but even then they are probably looking at a mediocre to average defense.

The offense looks great even with some of the guys jacking up shots that should probably be holstered. As frustrating as he is to watch THJ on the bench with the second unit makes sense. He's a huge threat when he heats up. Let him cook early on in the season so teams can look at his PPG stats and want to trade for him. With an expanded role on this team as opposed to his role on Boston, Grant Williams is thriving. Grant is a defensive stopper and better as a spot up shooter than we imagined when he signed as a free agent. It's early but Williams is averaging career highs in ppg, minutes, and shooting percentages.

As predicted Jaden Hardy is having a hard time finding his place so far this season. Even in a game that Kyrie Irving didn't play at all Jason Kidd only played Hardy for 10 minutes. Word is that he's continuing to work on his game, let's hope he's adding some presence on defense.

Derrick Jones Jr. is benefitting from playing with Luka Doncic in a way that he's never seen. Let's all hope that continues head in the direction of him meeting the potential that analysts once saw in him.

The Dereck Lively II situation is giving Mavs fans across DFW a bi-weekly aneurysm. When he's on the court he's a complete game changer - keyword: "when". Through the first 3 games, Lively II has been kept off the court by Kidd's coaching or most recently because of foul trouble. Expect those issues to level out soon, Lively needs to be on the court. There is no question he's the best center on the roster at this point.