The Dallas Mavericks have reached the finals! The Dallas Mavericks have reached the finals! The Dallas Mavericks have reached the finals! The Dallas Maverick have reached the finals! The Dallas Mavericks have reached the finals! Okay, I have to keep telling myself it is real because it feels so surreal! This team had an unimpressive first half of season, with the injuries that were mounting, and chemistry issues in parts of the locker room. It looked like the Mavs were poised to either barely make the play-in or miss the playoffs entirely.
However, the Mav made key additions in adding PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford. These moves, as well as getting the roster healthy propelled them to the 5th seed in the Western Conference with a 50-32 record. The post trade deadline Mavs were a different animal to deal with as they had a 21-9 record good for 3rd in the NBA during that span. This team as constructed deserves to be here, they are good enough to be here. This isn’t a fluke and beating the Clippers (51 Wins), Thunder (57 Wins) and Timberwolves (56 Wins) provide further evidence that this team is different.
How different, we won't know until they face the Celtics. The Celtics at 64 wins had the best record in the NBA, largely because they were already good and added Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. They are the team to beat, but have not been as battle tested as the Mavs. This is important in the playoffs. While the Mavs opponents averaged 55 wins during the regular season, the Celtics opponents averaged just 47 wins during the regular season. They did not have a series that lasted longer than 5 games and each of their opponents were without key players for large portions of their series. (Butler, Mitchell, Allen and Haliburton). The Mavs going Into the series are fully healthy and ready for battle.
The only time the Mavs and Celtics faced each other in the RS post trade deadline, the Celtics blew out the Mavs 138-110. In that game Gafford did not start and got 6 minutes and Jones Jr. played 7, and Hardy got 4 minutes. Those 3 players project to get a lot more minutes in this series. The Celtics were completely healthy and top minutes getters projected to be about the same for them. We don't have the information to suggest past performance as a predictor of future events. At first glance,on paper, it seems like the Mavs appear to be at a talent deficit but one that can be overcome if they play their game and Kidd pushes the right button like he has done all POs.
This is how the Mavs and Celtics look on paper amongst the top 10 most likely players to get minutes in the series.
The Stars
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown v Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving
While the stars will likely not guard each other in this series, their play will be the difference in the series. Luka and Kyrie will have to win this battle and decisively, which will prove tough because Tatum and Brown are a tough duo to match. They are both long two way players. They both shoot from the outside and can score in all 3 levels to a degree. They average 51ppg in the POs. Luka and Kyrie in the POs are average 51.6ppg for reference.
Luka and Kyrie pose their own threat, they are the most dynamic backcourt in the league and they are both exceptional passers. This makes defending them and everyone around them very difficult. They create so much misdirection and gravity that even the toughest of defenses had difficulty containing them. Luka and Kyrie will always have something special no matter who matches up against them, they can make some of the most demoralizing shots to opposing defenses. Mazulla will likely throw the kitchen sink at them and make others beat them.
Advantage- Dallas
The Key Support
Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis (I am assuming he is playing), Al Horford v PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford
My concern for the Mavs in this group is the experience. Do the young players in Dallas step up or shrink when the lights get the brightest? Thus far, collectively these young players have answered the call.
As a unit, and from a talent perspective Boston key supports would be considered better, but these Mavs players are pesky. Gafford’s minutes may be reduced if a 5 out is consistently deployed and Maxi’s increased, however, Kidd could choose to make them match up to the Mavs strength instead of the other way around. Kristaps is 7’3” but he is not the best rim protector despite his size. In fact, the Celtics don't provide much rim protection on defense and prefer to take 3s on offense.
Jrue and White are a problem in that they both shoot the 3, both can initiate the offense and defend. Washington and Jones are incredible defenders and have developed into good 3 point shooters in the playoffs, however, they are not the secondary or tertiary initiators that Jrue and White are which could be the difference in the series. This is where you wish Exum was better in the POs because the Mavs will need that against the long defenders of the Celtics.
Advantage- Likely Celtics
The Deep Support
Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman Sr. v Josh Green, Maxi Kleber, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jaden Hardy
I have a hard time evaluating these matchups because of how I view future Green and future Hardy. They are both tantalizing but incomplete players. It is also difficult because you do not know the full health of Maxi Kleber and if Tim Hardaway Jr. can give you hot 3 point shooting. This is an area that the Mavs have to win though. If games are won in the margins these players have to provide something. The good news is that despite not having great stats Green and Maxi can Impact a game with hustle and putting the game in the mud. The Hards are wild cards.
The Celtics Pritchard is their verison of pesky. He isnt a great defender but tries hard. He is a decent creator and rebounder for his size. Hauser is a player that can get on a heater. If they play well it will be hard for the Mavs to overcome. Kornet and Tillman Sr.are solid deep bench pieces.
Advantage- Dallas if only by the slightest of margins
Playstyles
The Mavs and Celtics play so differently and to put this into perspective, in the POs, the Celtics have SIX players (EIGHT in the RS) that shot 4< 3s/g. The Mavs only have 3 (Luka, Kyrie and PJW). The Celtics prefer to play more outside in brand of basketball. Even their bigs Kristaps and Horford will shoot the ball from 3 (9.1apg combined in regular season) and at good efficiency. While the Celtic do not have a player that averages over 6 assists per game, they do have several initiators and clever passing. They share the ball and that leads 3s out of their offense and enough spacing to get in the middle.
The Mavs on the other hand like to play heavy pick and roll actions with Lively and Gafford punishing the paint and the rim. The Mavs have the top 3 in lob dunks in the PO. These actions create easy points and set up the ability to have wide open 3s on the perimeter or secondary penetrations for mid range shots. How do Mavs 2s beat the Celtics 3s? This is something that Kidd will have to figure out.as the series moves along.
Each team seemingly has areas that they can exploit on the other. Dallas limited 3s in the OKC and Minnesota series. This could prove to be more difficult In this series.
Overall, the reason the finals is usually the biggest test is because it normally is. The Mavs have passed each test to date. There's a reason why the Celtics in Vegas are heavily favored in the series. On paper they look better but Luka is the best player in the series. He is the equalizer.