The wait is over. We finally know where Dallas will be slotted in the 2023 NBA Draft. After the NBA Draft Lottery took place in Chicago on Tuesday evening, May 16th, the Dallas Mavericks ended up keeping their #10 overall pick, kicking the can down the road that is the final draft pick owed to the New York Knicks from the Kristaps Porzingis trade back in 2019. They didn’t move down, they didn’t move up, they weren’t devastated and they weren’t bailed out. Nico Harrison now knows his full pool of assets to work with to rebound in 2023-2024 from what was one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history in 2022-2023. What trade assets does Dallas have in its arsenal? Here are the assets most likely to be traded in Summer 2023.
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Tim Hardaway Jr. saw his trade value rise around the league this season, primarily due to the necessity to Dallas’ success whenever Hardaway played above-average basketball. He’s a polarizing player on Mavs Twitter, but his value is clear & obvious as a key bench scorer in this league. On a roster that is properly constructed and not in a subpar salary cap position, he fits in perfectly with his microwave scoring ability and team-friendly contract (where he is owed slightly less than $18 million next season and slightly more than $16 million in 2024-2025.) Unfortunately, Dallas is not the aforementioned organization with proper roster construction and they have a below-average salary cap situation. To have any chance at improving this roster going into the 2023-2024 season, I see no way that Dallas is able to without parting ways with Tim. One reason it won’t be as drastic to move on from Hardaway is the emergence of impending 2nd year guard Jaden Hardy. Hardy seems ready to take the next step in his development and has a legitimate pathway to becoming the Mavericks’ lead guard off the bench and a dark-horse 6th Man of the Year candidate. Add together all the evidence above, and the result is April 2023 being the last month that Hardaway will have worn a Mavericks jersey in an NBA game. It’s tough to gauge the 1-for-1 value of THJ at this point in time, but any contending team or ascending young franchise should be interested in his services off their bench or as a spot-starter. Cleveland & Miami have shown past interest and I would assume they would again in June & July as well. The concept of pairing THJ with the Mavs’ 2023 #10 overall pick to bring in a legitimate starter or two is an avenue that Dallas should ponder as well. I personally would like to see how Indiana would feel about a THJ & 10th pick package for Myles Turner as a baseline for a deal. This might not be the exact return that Dallas will receive for a package as such, but it’s in the ballpark for what they should accept as reality.
2023 - 10th Overall Pick
The aforementioned idea of pairing Tim Hardaway Jr. with the 10th overall pick is only one of many options Dallas will look into in regards to the potential return in parting ways with the 10th pick. Dallas doesn’t have the cap situation to trade the 10th pick straight up for a player, so alternative options are needed. They could trade out of the draft entirely and stock up on “win-now” role players. They could trade down in the draft and accumulate more draft assets and/or a role player paired with another draft asset. They could also somehow trade UP in the draft, which I see as a very unlikely scenario. I personally see them going the route of pairing the pick with one or more of their own role players with a return of one starter and some 2nd round draft compensation. A framework of #10 & Reggie Bullock for Daniel Gafford and 1-2 2nd round picks would be something I think would be feasible. Again, a trade like this won’t be exactly what happens, but this is close to the value I can see Dallas getting in return in a trade like that. I personally don’t see many scenarios where Dallas keeps the 10th overall pick and makes the selection for themselves. I think it would be a prudent way of constructing their roster and possibly the right thing to do, but the writing on the wall spells out “T-R-A-D-E.”
2027 1st Round Draft Pick
Since the Mavericks retained their 2023 1st round pick that was top-10 protected, this now means that the next available draft pick post-2023 that Dallas will be able to trade during this upcoming off-season is their 2027 1st round pick. The value of one future 1st round draft pick in a standalone trade is difficult to assess. Theoretically, most of Dallas’ 1st round picks should be slated in the mid-to-late 20s during a healthy Luka Doncic season. This previous season showed that is amazingly not the case 100% of the time. From an optimistic Mavs fan’s perspective, 2022-2023 was an aberration compared to how Dallas has and will perform with Luka as the face of the franchise. All that being said, a 2027 Dallas draft pick could be seen as a premium commodity in the unlikely scenario that Luka demands a trade or decided to walk for free in free agency 2027. That is still very unlikely to happen, so the value of this pick alone is below-average in my opinion. The only scenario that I see Dallas parting ways with this pick during this off-season would be in a larger-scale deal that brought in an all-star level talent. Seeing as that is also very unlikely, and inadvisable in my opinion, don’t expect to see this draft pick moved anytime soon. If anything, This pick being traded near the 2024 trade deadline in a scenario where Dallas is slated as a true contender for the 2024 championship, and needs just one more piece to round out the roster (also unlikely in my opinion.)
Josh Green
At this point in the rankings, we’re reaching the level where I personally see less than a 1% chance that the final two will be, or should be, traded. Josh Green is the type of developmental player that every championship contender has on their roster. A young, athletic, ascending wing player that has shown consistent improvement the past 12 months is not something that you foil away if you’re a team in Dallas’ position. Josh would present a positive value in trade discussions for contending teams and rebuilding teams alike, which signals that he absolutely should remain in a Mavericks uniform for the foreseeable future. For a team that has a subpar history of drafting, Josh has developed into a positive draft pick as he enters into his 4th season in the association. Dallas should only trade their 2027 1st round pick in a scenario where an all-star level player came in return, the same is true regarding Green. He was arguably Dallas’ 3rd best player this past season, and with some more improvement Dallas could be a championship contender in the future with him still as their 3rd best player. You don’t throw that away unless you get a guarantee in return.
Jaden Hardy
The last trade asset Dallas has with more than mediocre value is Jaden Hardy. Jaden showed flashes, as I mentioned previously, of a potential 6th man of the year candidate. Jaden is the type of player you continue developing and mold into a future co-star for Luka. Some think his ceiling is a Tyler Herro-level player. Some think he has the potential to reach Bradley Beal’s level. Michael Jordan believes his ceiling is the roof. All jokes aside, I think any trade that includes Jaden not being in a Mavericks jersey next season is a bad idea. Is there a possibility they swing for the fences and trade Hardy, Green, salary filler and their two tradable 1st round picks for a player like Pascal Siakam in Toronto? I could see them doing so, but I would advise against it. The league is at a point where no team is truly needing that third perennial All-Star to compete. The league is balanced. The contending teams have 2 All-Star level players and deep rotations. Dallas has the 2 All-Stars, assuming Kyrie Irving re-signs this Summer, and Green & Hardy provide young, ascending depth. Dallas should focus on fine-tuning the edges instead of altering the core.